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Fund Manager Insights
Investguru Team interacts with fund managers and CIOs on regular basis to know their views on market happenings, how they are managing their funds and the message they have for investors. Through these interactions we learn about risk/return profile and future outlook of various funds, which helps us to recommend suitable funds to the investors. The rich learnings from these candid interactions form the backbone of our mutual fund advisory services. We also take up clients' queries and concerns with fund managers and update our clients with the answers we get.

We are happy to share the same learnings with the investors through 'Fund Manager Insights' section. Do provide your feedback and suggestions about this initiative to pawan@investguru.in


Chirag Setalvad
Fund Manager
HDFC Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • GST may have short term negative impact on equity market.
  • Midcap stocks are currently at a premium of around 20%, which is not a concern due to their growth potential for long term investing.
  • Investors may expect higher double digit returns from equity over next 5 years.
  • Preference is given to fundamental style of investing over momentum style investments.
  • Bottom up stock selection and quality of portfolio is prime focus.
  • Personal preference is towards midcaps due to higher growth potential and opportunities available in a broader market.

Date : 23 June 2017
Event : Equity Market Outlook, The Hans, New Delhi




Neelesh Surana
Chief Investment Officer-Equity
Mirae Asset Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Global markets are recovering after a prolonged slowdown, which shall be beneficial also for emerging economies like India.
  • Improved current account deficit, improved forex reserves, low inflation and growth oriented government policies indicate strong domestic macros.
  • India presents a long term growth story for equity investments due to favourable demographics, aspirational and educated youth and increasing per capita income
  • Diversified funds should be preferred for investment as they can tap new sectors and opportunities and have the potential to generate inflation beating returns
  • For stock selection in Mirae Asset fund portfolios, corporate governance and thought leadership of management is prime consideration besides other factors like business growth and valuations

Date : 27 March 2017
Event : Equity Market Outlook, The Hans, New Delhi




Kartik Mehta
Fund Manager
Canara Robeco Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Government has taken several steps for structural improvements in the economy
  • These structural changes shall make organised businesses much stronger, and negatively impact disorganised sector.
  • Several corporates are taking benefit of these changes and venturing into new businesses and consolidating existing businesses.
  • Earnings are improving and may see considerable improvements in 2-3 quarters.
  • Despite valuations being higher than historical averages, select midcaps still offer attractive opportunities for 3-5 year investment period

Date : 9 March 2017
Event : Equity Market Outlook, The Metropolitan, New Delhi




Shreyash Devalkar
Fund Manager
Axis Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Government reforms like demonetisation and upcoming GST shall see shift of value from unorganised sector to organised sector.
  • A blend of growth and value in the portfolio is suitable for long term equity investors.
  • Bottom up stock picking is must in each sector as huge divergence can be seen among the companies in the same sector.
  • Pharma may remain under pressure for some time, IT sector may look up in future.
  • Challenge in micro and small cap funds to deploy fresh money. Large cap and mid cap funds pose no such problem at this moment.
  • Fresh money should be allocated to large and mid caps with at least 3 year horizon.

Date : 22 February 2017
Event : Equity Market Outlook, The Hans, New Delhi




Ritesh Jain
Chief Investment Officer
Tata Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Trump victory in US and demonetization has led to recent market correction.
  • 10 Year government bond expected to be bottom out around 6%, which may lead to lower returns in debt market after 6-12 months, and further decline in FD rates.
  • Demonetization will boost non-cash economy and curb the black money market. This will negatively affect the real estate prices. Housing to become more affordable.
  • With higher tax collection, government spending on infrastructure and public utilities will increase which will benefit the public sector companies and overall economy.
  • Market valuations are good for investment with time horizon of at least 3 years, with higher volatility in next 3-6 months.

Date : 29 November 2016
Event : 'Indian and Global Market Outlook', The Hans, New Delhi




Anil Shah
Fund Manager
Birla Sunlife Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Majority government in Centre and high GDP growth make India a favourable investment destination for global investors.

  • Growing population, aspirational middle class and varied business attract foreign investors.

  • Consistent depreciation in currency gives an advantage to India in comparison to other emerging markets.

  • Falling interest rate scenario is good for equity market.

  • Deep correction unlikely in Indian stock market. Global happening may bring some short term correction.

  • No new addition in business sectors in last 15 years and low free float make valuations high in the market.

  • Focus mainly on top down approach in managing funds.


Date : 6 October 2016
Event : Equity Market Outlook, The Hans, New Delhi




R. Janakiraman
Vice President & Portfolio Manager–Equity
Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Favourable demographics and rising per capita income shall drive growth in India for next 30-40 years
  • India presents immense opportunities for wealth creation for investors, which they should not miss
  • Even a compounded return of 12-15% over a long period of 25-30 years creates enormous wealth
  • Markets are currently in fair or 10% above fair value zone, which is not a concern for long term investing
  • Both large and midcaps have ample space to make fresh investments for attractive returns
  • Asset rebalancing is recommended when markets become highly overvalued

Date : 24 August 2016
Event : Current Equity Market Outlook, The Hans, New Delhi.




Lakshmi Iyer
CIO-Debt and Product Head
Kotak Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • India is very far from zero rate on bank deposits, as seen in few developed countries
  • In 1-2 years, the 10 year bond benchmark rate may bottom out with downward correction of 50 bps from current levels
  • India is a captive market, shall certainly get FII inflows in the event of loose global liquidity
  • She doubts rate hike in US shall happen, as it is a presidential election year
  • Opportunity in short and medium term debt funds to generate healthy returns over next 2-3 years
  • Arbitrage funds may generate superior tax adjusted returns than liquid funds over a short period

Date : 18 May 2016
Event : An overview on Debt Market, The Hans, New Delhi.




Manish Gunwani
Deputy CIO-Equity
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Fund management process is documented and followed for each scheme on the basis of its objective
  • Asset Allocation funds provide superior risk adjusted returns
  • Focus is on investing in companies which can grow at a rate higher than that of GDP growth
  • For last two years, midcaps have been trading at premium valuations in comparison to large caps, and this valuation gap should narrow down in future
  • Primary reason of higher midcap valuations is continuous inflow of domestic money in stock markets
  • Large caps may see higher upside if and when FII inflows increase

Date : 26 April 2016
Event : "Morningstar Advisor Forum", The Lalit, New Delhi.




Alex NG
Chief Investment Officer-Asia Pacific
BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Indian economy is relatively stable in otherwise financially unstable world
  • Oil prices are down due to higher supply
  • Current oil prices are not sustainable, natural correction may occur over next 6-12 months
  • China slowdown not to impact US growth much
  • China's advantage is its ability to migrate up in the value chain
  • Positive change in India is states competing with each other to attract investments and push economic growth
  • Indian markets are less volatile than Chinese markets
  • Active fund management in India is superior due to bottom up stock picking. ETFs are not the first choice.
  • India is the only country with net positive FII inflows in equity

Date : 3 February 2016
Event : Annual Outlook 2016 at The Oberoi, New Delhi.




Santosh Kamath
Chief Investment Officer-Fixed Income
Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund-India

Key Insights :
  • Bond yields not correcting downwards due to huge supply and low demand
  • Even in case of rate reduction by RBI, the bonds yields may not go down much in future, due to supply coming in from states under UDAY scheme
  • For next 2-3 years, corporate bonds to provide higher returns, though with credit risk.
  • Even corporate bond fund supply may be more than the demand in next 2-3 years, hence investment should be targeted in corporate bond funds for next 2-3 years only.


Date : 28 January 2016
Event : An interactive session on 'Debt Market Outlook-2016' at The Hans, New Delhi.




Mahesh Patil
Chief Investment Officer-Equity
Birla Sunlife Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Due to global slowdown, the nominal Indian GDP growth may be 10% in 2016
  • The government policies and actions are creating the foundation necessary for long term, sustainable growth.
  • The positive impact of government actions shall be visible in the economy in next 1-2 years.
  • Equity markets may remain volatile for next 3-6 months
  • Investors may expect 15% compounded returns over next 3 years
  • Balanced and multicap equity funds to provide better risk adjusted returns as compared to thematic and sector funds.


Date : 15 January 2016
Event : An interactive session on 'Equity Market Outlook 2016' at The Hans, New Delhi




V Balasubramanian
Head-Equity
IDBI Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Portfolio construction is key to consistent returns, and not individual stocks.
  • Volatility is managed through portfolio construction, do not take cash calls.
  • Do not take trading calls and invest in stocks with long term view.
  • High P/E stocks may remain in portfolio if growth potential is visible.
  • Fund objective is to deliver superior risk adjusted returns.

Date : 14 October 2015
Event : An Interactive session with Mr. V Balasubramanian, Hotel Hans, New Delhi.




Jinesh Gopani
Fund Manager
Axis Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Government working on structural changes, hence economic growth shall be slow and steady.
  • Corporates under debt are under pressure, PSU banks balance sheets are stressed and in bad shape.
  • SME and MSME are under pressure due to lack of activity by large corporates.
  • New set of entrepreneurs shall emerge in future.
  • 7% GDP growth is satisfactory.
  • Fund philosophy is to invest in businesses that are leaders or potential leaders with good corporate governance.

Date : 9 October 2015
Event : An interactive session on 'Equity Market Outlook' at The Park, New Delhi.




Anand Shah
Chief Investment Officer
BNP Paribas Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • India is the new growth leader. It has already become too big to ignore and is expected to become the 4th largest world economy by 2020 and 2nd largest by 2040.
  • Other economies across the globe are facing slow-down. India is the only bright spot for FIIs for investment.
  • Key to improvement in economy is job creation and keeping inflation low.
  • Interest rates are higher than inflation for the first time in India.
  • The Indian equity market is expected to remain on an uptrend for coming several years, with potential short-term corrections on the way.
  • The investors should not be expecting ‘Too much too soon’.
  • Government and RBI are working on structural recovery of the country and not on cyclical recovery.
  • It is the companies that  create wealth, not markets. Key to wealth creation is identifying superior businesses with strong management at reasonable valuations.

Date : 7 October 2015
Event : Interactive session on "Market Outlook-Equities", Hotel Hans Plaza, New Delhi.




Neelesh Surana
Head-Equity
Mirae Asset Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Indian economy is in much better position than other emerging markets due to relatively more stable currency and favourable macro economic factors like low current account deficit, controlled fiscal deficit and fall in global commodity prices.
  • India is positively impacted by lower oil and commodity prices as it is majorly an importer.
  • Reasons of domestic corporates not showing improved results are lack of demand, low capacity utilization and subdued investments.
  • Corporate bottomline to improve more than topline on account of lower input prices.
  • Initiatives undertaken by government in last one year may take 1-2 years to show visible results.
  • Polarization is seen in the stock prices due to which quality stocks have become expensive. Mirae Asset philosophy is to look for quality stocks at reasonable pricing to generate superior risk-adjusted returns.

Date : 1 October 2015
Event : Discussion on "Equity Market Outlook", Hotel Hans Plaza, New Delhi.




Anand Radhakrishnan
CIO-Equity
Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Equity Market may not get adversely affected by Fed rate hike as this event has already got discounted. In fact, in case of no rate hike, the markets may bounce back from current levels.
  • Companies to report average sales growth but better profitability due to fall in commodity prices
  • Demand needs to pickup for a broader market rally
  • Market trending at near long term averages, large caps fairly valued than midcaps, invest in equities with minimum five year horizon
  • Balanced Funds suitable investment option for beginners and investors who wish to participate in growth with lesser volatility

Date : 10 September 2015
Event : Presentation on “Current Equity Market Outlook” at The Park, New Delhi.




Harrish Zaveri
Fund Manager
DSPBR Mutual Fund

Key Insights :
  • Investors should invest in equity funds with minimum five year horizon at this point
  • Markets might see some correction due to event risks like US Fed rate hike, Yuan devaluation

Date : 13 August 2015
Event : Presentation on 'Market Outlook' at The Metropolitan, New Delhi.


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Risk Factor : All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks and the NAV of the schemes may go up or down depending upon the factors and forces affecting the securities market and there can be no assurance that the fund's objectives will be achieved. Past performance of the Fund does not indicate the future performance of the Schemes of the Fund.
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